A Theory of Change (ToC) is one of the most widely required — and most frequently misused — tools in development programming. In Somalia, where operating contexts shift rapidly, assumptions break down quickly, and causal pathways are rarely linear, a poorly constructed ToC is not just a wasted planning exercise. It actively undermines a programme's ability to learn and adapt.
Having reviewed and evaluated dozens of programme ToCs across Somalia's Federal Member States, Himma Consultancy has identified a set of principles that distinguish useful theories of change from decorative ones.
What Makes a ToC Fail in Fragile Contexts
Assumptions That Don't Hold
Every ToC rests on assumptions — about how change happens, what actors will do, and what the context allows. In stable contexts, these assumptions can be borrowed from the literature. In Somalia, they must be derived from the specific community, district, and political moment in which the programme operates.
We regularly encounter ToCs that assume women's participation in community decision-making will increase simply because women are trained in leadership — without accounting for clan structures, spousal authority constraints, or the absence of platforms through which trained women can exercise influence.
The gap between the training room and the community meeting is where most women's empowerment programmes lose their impact. A good ToC maps that gap explicitly.
Linear Thinking in Non-Linear Contexts
Most ToC templates present a clean chain from inputs to activities to outputs to outcomes to impact. Reality in Somalia is rarely this tidy. Security incidents interrupt activities. Seasonal displacement disrupts beneficiary access. Political transitions shift government counterpart priorities mid-programme.
A ToC that presents change as linear is a ToC that will require constant apology in progress reports. A ToC that acknowledges non-linearity — building in feedback loops, decision points, and contingency pathways — is a tool that helps programmes navigate rather than just document.
What a Good Somalia-Context ToC Looks Like
It is Built Participatorily
The best ToCs we have reviewed were developed through structured workshops with community members, local authorities, and programme staff — not drafted by a consultant in Nairobi and presented for sign-off. When the people implementing the programme understand and own the ToC, they use it. When they don't, it lives in the inception report.
It Makes Assumptions Explicit and Testable
Every causal arrow in a ToC rests on an assumption. Good ToCs name those assumptions explicitly and identify how they will be monitored. If the assumption is that local authorities will create space for women's participation, then the MEL system should be tracking whether that space actually exists — not assuming it does because the ToC says so.
It is Living, Not Laminated
A ToC reviewed once at inception and never revisited is a historical document, not a management tool. Programmes operating in Somalia should review their ToC at least annually — and after any significant contextual shift — to test whether the causal logic still holds.
Conclusion
A Theory of Change is only as good as the thinking that went into it and the discipline applied to using it. In Somalia's complex environment, programmes that treat the ToC as a genuine thinking tool — rather than a compliance requirement — are the ones that adapt, learn, and ultimately deliver impact.
